NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Texas now top seed, Notre Dame rejoins College Football Playoff bracket projection

Saturday’s run of upsets involving some of the top teams in the Bowl Subdivision has us going back to the drawing board in this week’s College Football Playoff bracket projection.

Let’s not erase the board entirely,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center though. Alabama might’ve lost to Vanderbilt, but the Crimson Tide still land as at-large bid in the 12-team field. Texas takes over as the leader in the SEC and the favorite to land the No. 1 overall bid in early December.

One team dumped out of this week’s bracket is Tennessee, losers on Saturday night at Arkansas. With earlier wins against North Carolina State and Oklahoma already losing luster, the Volunteers have to split games against the Crimson Tide and Georgia with no other missteps in order to earn a playoff bid.

The reshuffled deck reflects the single losses suffered during a chaotic Saturday while still focusing on the bigger picture in the playoff debate.

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What’s obvious through one week of October is that the SEC is going to cannibalize playoff contenders and leave multiple teams in the two-loss range by the end of the regular season. Even with conference play barely underway, there are only three SEC teams still unbeaten in league play - Texas, Texas A&M and LSU - and the Longhorns are the only one of the three without a non-conference loss.

In the end, Alabama is projected to rebound from this past weekend and finish the regular season with the record and resume to reach the playoff.

College Football Playoff bracket projection

There are three changes of note in this week’s bracket.

The first has Notre Dame stepping into the field in place of Tennessee. The Fighting Irish will always have that loss to Northern Illinois, which looked awful in the moment and even worse now, after the Huskies have dropped two of three since leaving South Bend.

Notre Dame’s remaining schedule is much easier than what you’ll find in the Power Four while still featuring a nice blend of winnable games against solid competition. The Irish still face Georgia Tech, Navy, Virginia, Army and Southern California.

The second is the swap at the top of the ACC. One-loss Clemson replaces unbeaten Miami as the conference favorite after the Hurricanes needed an epic comeback to win at California. That win came one week after another frantic finish in a narrow victory against Virginia Tech.

Clemson has looked tremendous since losing to Georgia in the season opener. Given how the offense has exploded the past few weeks, the Tigers are the safer bet to take home the ACC while relegating Miami to an at-large bid.

And third, Boise State replaces UNLV as the Group of Five representative. The Rebels’ loss to Syracuse made this easy. But the Broncos are playing like one of the best teams in the FBS, sparked by what is shaping up to be a memorable season by star running back Ashton Jeanty.

Four teams to watch

Texas A&M

The Aggies’ 41-10 destruction of Missouri should open some eyes in the SEC. Winners of five in a row since dropping the opener to Notre Dame, A&M could reach the conference championship game by taking care business on the road against Mississippi State, South Carolina and Auburn while splitting home games against LSU and Texas.

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh stayed unbeaten through a road trip against North Carolina and now owns three wins against the Power Four. Home games ahead against California and Syracuse will determine if the Panthers stay in the race. The November schedule includes matchups with SMU, Clemson and Louisville that can make or break them.

Nebraska

An elite defense gives Nebraska a chance. While beating Ohio State later this month is a pipe dream, this defense and the potential seen in the Dylan Raiola-led offense could leave the Cornhuskers in the at-large mix heading into games against Southern California, Wisconsin and Iowa to end the regular season.

Tulane

The Green Wave are still in the thick of the Group of Five race despite two losses in September. Both losses were competitive against ranked teams in Kansas State and Oklahoma, and the selection committee will look favorably on those non-conference games should Tulane win another American Athletic championship.