FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Best fits for Corbin Burnes: 6 teams that could match up with Cy Young winner

Let’s be FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerclear: Everybody could use a Corbin Burnes – or three – in their starting rotation.

The right-hander has been arguably the steadiest source of quality innings pitched the past four seasons, a span in which he won a National League Cy Young Award, made between 28 and 33 starts and three times topped the 190-innings mark.

And now, he’s available to any team.

After a trade to the Baltimore Orioles produced another Cy Young-caliber season and a 2.92 ERA for the 90-win club, Burnes is the top prize on the free agent pitching market. And while every team is desperate for innings – and most teams could afford him – a few provide a snugger fit for the 6-foot-3, 30-year-old whose cut fastball remains one of the game’s toughest pitches to square up.

A look at the best fits for Burnes:

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The mandatory inclusion. You wonder if there was a grander significance to Burnes tweeting eyes at the club’s account after its World Series title; it’d stand to reason that the Bakersfield native wouldn’t mind plying his trade over the Grapevine and down to Chavez Ravine.

Naturally, the Dodgers can afford him yet you wonder how they might prioritize and slot Burnes into their stable of arms. The projected 1-2-3 of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and a fellow named Shohei Ohtani already conjures concern beyond Yamamoto. Is Glasnow past his elbow trouble? Will Ohtani bounce back from a second Tommy John surgery?

The questions only keep flying from there. Walker Buehler back? Clayton Kershaw viable for 25 starts on what could be his final ride? The injured but ostensibly mended cavalry of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and the inconsistent Bobby Miller able to be counted upon?

You can see how the Dodgers might be motivated to burn some of their funny money on Burnes.

Baltimore Orioles

The smoke signals are hovering: Yes, it appears the Orioles are going to spend some cash this winter.

With new owner David Rubenstein’s proclamation he’s not getting any younger to super agent Scott Boras’s plausible punnery from the GM meetings, Baltimore seems poised to break nearly two decades of largely sitting out the market for major free agents.

Will the Orioles enjoy any advantage of incumbency with Burnes?

With Boras as his agent, the dollar likely speaks loudest. But Burnes pitched really well in Baltimore, his 2.92 ERA his lowest since a career-best 2.43 mark in his NL Cy Young campaign of 2021. His home runs per nine innings stayed steady at 1.0 and while his hits per nine jumped to 7.6, he gave up just 22 extra-base hits in 17 starts at Camden Yards.

The Orioles have moved on from director of pitching Chris Holt, but pitching coach Drew French returns. GM Mike Elias has built an infrastructure that enables players to find their ceilings. In reality, perhaps the Orioles’ more realistic price point on the market is lefty Max Fried or slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández.

But Burnes at least knows he realized just about the best version of himself in Baltimore.

New York Mets

Hey, the money should be right.

For as much as baseball ops chief David Stearns wants to build sustainably and organically and all that, he knows what Burnes can mean to a pitching staff from their days in Milwaukee. And how perilous it can be to develop young pitching. And how tricky it can be to capture just enough out of itinerant veterans like Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino to squeak into the playoffs by a game, as the Mets did last year.

With top prospect Christian Scott lost to shoulder surgery and nominal ace Kodai Senga coming off a 10-inning campaign (including playoffs), the Mets need innings, and need to capitalize on the peak years of Francisco Lindor. Owner Steve Cohen should have a few bucks left over after wining and dining Juan Soto – and should be more motivated to spend top dollar on Burnes than traditional superpowers like the Dodgers and crosstown Yankees.

Detroit Tigers

No team was more fascinating from Aug. 1 until the moment they were eliminated in a thrilling five-game AL Division Series. Now, imagine how good they’d be in a stretch drive and playoff run with a right-handed complement to Tarik Skubal.

While local TV uncertainty has threatened much of baseball’s upper middle class, the Tigers have just one big contract on the books – infielder Javy Baez’s $140 million pact expires after the 2027 season. No one expects the Tigers to spend like the high Mike Ilitch era, but there’s an awful lot of flexibility.

And while the club still has other needs – corner infield, for one – Comerica Park is still a great place to build around elite pitching and stout defense. Skubal, the presumed AL Cy Young winner, and Burnes would give Detroit the AL’s best 1-2 pitching punch.

Burnes would also provide insurance against a possible Skubal departure after two seasons and give Detroit a chance to engage with the dominant lefty’s agent – that would also be Boras.

San Francisco Giants

At some point, the Giants will realize their push to attract elite hitters to China Basin is nothing more than a Sisyphusian endeavor, what with Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Shohei Ohtani kicking the tires and saying, “No, thanks,” over the past eight years.

So what, then, can the Giants offer Burnes?

A chance to pair with Logan Webb and, perhaps, Blake Snell in the rotation. Gold Glove winners at third base (Matt Chapman) and behind the plate (Patrick Bailey). And for a club that has a relatively stable TV situation and, suddenly, the entire Bay Area to itself, an awful lot of money.

Like the Tigers, this is about playing to strengths and steering into identity. Oracle Park is also the toughest place in the majors to hit a home run, and just three parks are friendlier to pitchers overall. Burnes, it seems, would be a perennial threat to add an additional NL Cy Young trophy to his mantle.

Chicago Cubs

This assumes the Cubs want to be more than a mixed-use development doubling as a baseball team, of course.

Yet nothing short of signing Juan Soto would brand the Cubs serious about winning than adding a horse to their pitching staff, a right-handed answer to the dazzle and steadiness Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele bring from the other side.

Given their market size and revenue streams relative to their NL Central rivals, it’s borderline embarrassing the Cubs haven’t claimed the division title in a full season since 2017. They hired away Craig Counsell from Milwaukee to make a difference on the margins.

Stealing the Brewers’ old ace would be an even more tangible way to swing the balance of power their way.

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