FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|NFL MVP race after Week 3: Bills' Josh Allen, Vikings' Sam Darnold lead way

We’re three weeks into the NFL season,FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center and there’s a clear frontrunner for Most Valuable Player.

It’s not the reigning MVP in Baltimore Ravens star Lamar Jackson (2019, 2023).

It’s not the reigning Super Bowl MVP in Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes (2018, 2022).

And it’s not Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets’ starter who doesn’t seem far from his 2020 and 2021 MVP form.

As you can see, only three players have won the last six NFL Most Valuable Player Awards.

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But one NFL superstar could break the trend with his first MVP, if he continues to ball out like he has through the first three weeks of the NFL season.

Here’s a countdown of our top three players in the 2024 NFL MVP race, and an honorable mention deserving of praise after Week 3:

3. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

The defending Super Bowl MVP and the reigning champions are off to a 3-0 start to the point where NFL fans are clamoring: The Chiefs can’t keep getting away with this!

Kansas City has wins against the Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons, thriving late in close games like they have during their back-to-back Super Bowl title runs.

Mahomes has a new favorite target in receiver Rashee Rice, who has 24 catches – three times as many catches as the next leading pass catcher (Travis Kelce with eight catches, 69 yards). The Chiefs’ running game also appears in good hands behind rookie Carson Steele (17 carries, 72 yards against the Falcons), starting in place of the injured Isiah Pacheco.

Mahomes hasn’t been flawless: He has four interceptions and hasn’t been able to unleash in the passing game with defenses playing him deep. But Mahomes’ five touchdowns passes and timely scoring drives, coupled with Kansas City’s defense, have him in the MVP conversation.

2. Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold

Darnold is the NFL’s leader with eight touchdown passes, after a four-touchdown performance in a lopsided win over the Houston Texans last week.

The No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft has finally found a home in Minnesota, where coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense appears to be a perfect fit with the NFL’s top receiver Justin Jefferson and talented veteran running back Aaron Jones to support him.

The vaunted Vikings defense has also made things easy for Darnold, limiting opponents to just 10 points per game, which is second in the NFL behind the Pittsburgh Steelers (8.7).

Darnold’s touchdown mark and back-to-back victories over preseason-Super Bowl contenders like the San Francisco 49ers and Texans boost his early MVP case.

1. Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

Josh Allen is coming off the best individual performance of the early season, where he torched the Jacksonville Jaguars with four touchdown passes and five scoring drives in a dominant 47-10 win on Monday Night Football.

Allen and the Bills are off to a 3-0 start, showing no signs of missing star receiver Stefon Diggs in Buffalo. Ten different players had a completion against Jacksonville as Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has Allen in prime position to feed all of his targets. Running back James Cook has also emerged as a primary weapon for Allen as a rusher and receiver.

Allen leads the NFL with a 92.6 QBR and 133.7 quarterback rating, and he has not turned the ball over since a fumble on the first Bills drive of the season.

After a comeback win at home over the Cardinals to start the season, and blowout wins against the Miami Dolphins and Jaguars, Allen squarely sits ahead of the pack in the early MVP conversation.

Honorable mention: Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley

The MVP award is traditionally a quarterback award, but here’s a shoutout to the Eagles new star running back Saquon Barkley, whose addition to Philadelphia has kept the Eagles as NFC East favorites this season.

Barkley scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns to lead Philadelphia to a win against the New Orleans Saints last week.

Barkley has five touchdowns from scrimmage this season – tied with Saints star Alvin Kamara (who scored four in a game) and Rams running back Kyren Williams (who scored three in a game last week).

Barkley may be second to Kamara in total yards this season (417 vs. 404), but he was the clear standout star in their game last week. Barkley finished with 156 total yards total, while Kamara had 127 yards, and couldn’t find the end zone.